700 new cases today in Ontario - It's going well
Posted by Emmett Macfarlane on Monday, September 28, 2020
For weeks some of us were ringing alarm bells. The rolling average of new cases grew from 80 to 120 to 150 to 200 to 250 to over 300. We asked why the province was sitting on its hands, doing nothing in the face of an emerging 2nd wave. We asked why bars and gyms were open. We asked why we didn't roll back to phase 2 so that we could avoid another full shutdown. We asked why the province's idiotic school policy did nothing to limit class sizes.
Well, today the province reports 700 new cases, the highest total since the peak of the first wave - on the same day it is allowing casinos to re-open. And it's not even cold out yet.
For my part, I'm going to wait. I'm going to wait for the otherwise intelligent people who argued with me about the obvious and inevitable. Those who said it didn't matter that new cases were rising because the spread was among the young. I pointed out the virus spreads among the population. Young people don't live in a bubble. Well, 285 of today's cases are among people over 40. 102 are among people over 60. A month ago we weren't reporting 100 new cases total.
They said the exponential growth in cases didn't matter because hospitalizations were flat. I pointed out hospitalizations were a lagging indicator. Well, they've now tripled in a few weeks. They've doubled from the low 60s to over 120 in 9 days.
The growth in deaths will come in 2-3 weeks as well. And hospitalizations and deaths will continue to grow so long as cases grow.
And the province is doing nothing.
This wasn't really up for debate. We'd literally been through this a mere 6 months prior. No one needed an epidemiology degree to see this coming. If you allow exponential growth to continue without doing anything to stop it, it will spiral out of control.
I'll be waiting for those who argued to admit they were wrong. And I know I'll keep waiting.